What 220 H-1B Lottery Registrations Taught Us About Your Odds 

Every spring, hundreds of thousands of people wait anxiously to find out if their name was drawn in the H-1B lottery. It's the first hurdle in a long process (and for many, it feels completely random).  But is it really just luck? To help answer that question, we tracked 220 H-1B Cap registrations this year across all of our clients. In a spirit of transparency, we’re sharing our raw data as well as our takeaways below.  Whether you're an employee hoping to work in the U.S. or an employer trying to sponsor someone, it’s a worthwhile read.  First, a quick refresher  The H-1B visa is the most common way for U.S. employers to hire foreign professionals in specialty occupations (think engineers, analysts, accountants, architects, and similar roles). Every year, the government caps the number of new H-1B visas at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 reserved for individuals who hold a master's degree (or higher) from a U.S. institution.  Because demand far exceeds supply, USCIS runs a weighted, random lottery to decide who even gets the chance to apply. Getting "selected" in the lottery doesn't mean you have the visa, but rather that your employer can now file the actual petition. That petition still has to be approved.  The big picture: our 220 registrations  Here's a snapshot of what our client pool looked like this year:    Two out of three registrations — 68% — were for candidates with a U.S. master's degree. That's no accident. Candidates with a U.S. advanced degree get entered into the lottery twice: once in the master's cap pool, and again in the regular pool if they aren't selected the first time. That double shot meaningfully improves their chances.  Wage level is the hard part (not the lottery)  The lottery itself is random (although it changed to a weighted system this year, so it’s not as random as it once was). Because it’s weighted, every registration has different chances of being drawn. Once you're selected, your case needs to survive scrutiny from USCIS — that's where the wage level becomes critical.  The Department of Labor assigns wage levels (I through IV) based on the complexity of the job and the experience required. Level I is for entry-level positions; Level IV is for the most experienced, senior roles. The wage level also corresponds to an applicant’s chances of being drawn in the lottery itself — Wage Level IV gets 4 entries into the selection pool, Wage Level III gets 3, and so on.   It meaningfully improves your odds to 1) Have a Master’s degree or higher, and 2) put in for a higher wage level.  Here's what we saw in our data:  For bachelor's degree holders, the selection rate was just 33% at Wage Levels I through III… but it jumped to 76% at Wage Level IV. For master's degree holders, the climb was even more dramatic: from 40% at Level I all the way up to 86% at Level IV.  Why does this matter? Because the wage level signals to USCIS how "specialty" the occupation truly is. A Level I wage suggests an entry-level role that may not require the specialized expertise the H-1B program is designed for. Higher wage levels indicate genuine complexity (something the USCIS prizes). And in light of the new weighted system, you get more entries as you move up the Wage Level scale (and twice as many entries on top of that if you have a Master’s+ degree).  Selected vs. not selected: the full breakdown  When we look at the raw numbers across both degree types, the gap between master's and bachelor's candidates becomes even clearer:  Of our 149 master's degree registrations, 95 were selected (64%). Of the 71 bachelor's degree registrations, just 31 were selected (44%). That’s a pretty unambiguous advantage to the master’s cohort.  Where the candidates fall: wage level distribution  Even within the two tracks, the shape of the degree pool differed. Bachelor's candidates were heavily concentrated at Wage Level II (51% of all bachelor's registrations), whereas master's candidates spread out more evenly across all four levels; master’s holders tend to fill a wider range of roles (including more senior positions).  What we do before the lottery: the Cap Analysis  Much of the most important work should happen before a single lottery registration is submitted.  At Serotte Immigration Partners, every H-1B Cap candidate goes through what we call a Cap Analysis — an assessment we perform before registration. We’re evaluating three things:  The candidate's credentials: What degrees do they hold? What's their work history? Does their background genuinely match a specialty occupation?  The job itself: What are the actual duties? Where is the position located? Does the role — as described — require the kind of specialized knowledge the H-1B program demands?  The employer's budget: What wage level can the employer realistically support? Wage level directly affects both the chances of selection as well as the likelihood of surviving scrutiny if the case is selected (and an actual H-1B petition needs to be filed and approved).  The goal is to determine which wage level will both increase the likelihood of selection and what’s most likely to withstand a challenge from USCIS (before anyone spends thousands of dollars on a petition). In some cases, we advise our employer clients to adjust the role, the salary, or both. In other cases, we might recommend an entirely different visa category. It's better to know upfront than to find out after a denial.  Think of it this way: The lottery is a raffle. Yes, some folks have more tickets in the pool, but it is ultimately luck-based to a degree. The petition that follows, however, is not. The Cap Analysis is how we make sure that if your name is drawn, your case is built to win.  What this means for you  If you're an employer thinking about sponsoring an H-1B worker, or a professional hoping to work in the U.S. on an H-1B, here are the takeaways:  A U.S. master's degree helps — a lot: The double lottery entry and the stronger credential profile lead to meaningfully better outcomes across the board.  Wage level isn’t just a number on a form: The higher the wage level, the more “raffle” entries you get in the applicant pool. It's also one of the strongest predictors of whether a case will survive review. Cutting corners on salary to save money often backfires here.  Preparation matters more than luck: The lottery is a raffle, sure… but everything that happens after it is not. A well-prepared case — one where the wage level, the job description, and the candidate's background all align — has a dramatically better chance of approval and holding up to USCIS scrutiny down the line.  Get a professional assessment early: Don’t think of the Cap Analysis fee as an expense; it's insurance against wasting far more money on a case that wasn't set up to succeed.  Thinking about an H-1B?  Our team helps employers and candidates navigate the entire process — from initial Cap Analysis through petition approval. Let's talk about your situation.  Get in touch with Serotte    This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice.